FalconX Analysis: Trump’s Election Odds Likely Not Crucial for Bitcoin Price

FalconX Analysis: Trump’s Election Odds Likely Not Crucial for Bitcoin Price

A new analysis by Prime Broker FalconX suggests that the likelihood of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency may have less impact on Bitcoin's price than previously believed.

Study Overview

FalconX compared changes in Bitcoin's price with fluctuations in Trump's odds of winning, as tracked on the crypto betting platform Polymarket. The study, which covered the period from June 1 to August 15, found no clear correlation between Trump’s election odds and Bitcoin's price movements.

Context and Insights

In recent weeks, analysts have speculated that Trump’s chances of winning might positively influence Bitcoin. This belief was partly fueled by Trump’s positive comments about Bitcoin at a conference in Nashville. However, despite this speculation, the FalconX analysis found no consistent link between the two.

Meanwhile, significant events unrelated to the election, such as aggressive Bitcoin sales by the German state of Saxony and sales by former Mt. Gox customers, have been responsible for notable price changes during this period.

According to David Lawant, FalconX’s Head of Research, while the study found no current correlation, the outcome of the November election could still have a substantial impact on Bitcoin's price.

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