US Elections and the law of large numbers

Me:

I have heard it said that there is some kind of a law of large numbers that tends to make many US elections for presidents and members of congress close. would you agree with that?

ChatGPT:

Yes, the idea that US elections, particularly for president and Congress, tend to be close can be linked to several factors that resemble the principles behind the law of large numbers. Here are some reasons why this might be the case:

Large and Diverse Electorate: The US has a large and diverse population with varied interests, beliefs, and priorities. This diversity means that when all these opinions are aggregated, the results can often be close to an even split.

Two-Party System: The dominance of two major political parties (Democrats and Republicans) means that the competition is often a binary choice. With both parties having substantial support bases, elections can frequently result in tight races.

Swing States/Districts: Many states or districts have a roughly equal number of supporters for each party, making them battlegrounds where small shifts in voter preferences can lead to close outcomes.

Campaign Strategies: Both parties invest heavily in identifying and turning out their supporters, often leading to well-matched efforts that result in close elections.

Incumbency and Redistricting: Factors like incumbency advantage and strategic redistricting (gerrymandering) can also lead to competitive races, as these practices can create districts with nearly balanced party support.

While the "law of large numbers" in its formal mathematical sense deals with probabilities and averages converging as sample sizes increase, the concept that larger, more diverse populations tend to produce outcomes near the mean can loosely apply to why many US elections end up being close.